This paper proposes a holistic and comprehensive approach to accurately measure and detect systemic risk. A counter-cyclical structure of regulatory policy has been widely proposed as a countermeasure of the pro-cyclicality of the risk charge. Accordingly, extant regulatory approaches highlight the need for leading variables as a harbinger of a systemic crisis based on the market prices rather than lagging ones. Our empirical study based on a Markov regime-switching model con rms that both leading and lagging systemic variables are helpful in a complementary manner. The proposed diagnostic framework clearly demonstrates the di erent aspects of a series of previous crises.
Keywords: Systemic risk, Systemic indicators, Markov regime switching model
