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[2023년 5차] Reference Price Updating in the Housing Market

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What reference price do home sellers use when deciding on listing prices? This paper revisits this question using a model of seller listing behavior and a novel dataset that traces the transaction, refinancing, and listing history of over 97,000 U.S. residential properties. Integrating insights from financial markets into the housing market context and using the appraised price of a refinance mortgage as an observable historical peak, I find strong empirical and quantitative evidence that sellers exhibit greater degree of reference dependence and loss aversion to this historical peak compared to the initial purchase price. This finding suggests that the historical peak during sellers’ homeownership period serves as an updated reference point influencing their pricing strategy. Additionally, this paper incorporates the impact of the default option on the listing price, leading to a more comprehensive understanding of the forces at play in the seller’s decision-making process. Finally, this paper sheds new light on explaining the price-volume correlation through mortgage refinancing and reference price updating.

Keywords: appraisal, loss aversion, reference point updating, seller behavior, mortgages, housing market
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2. Reference Price Updating in the Housing Market.pdf
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